当前行业控产力度较大 PTA期货价格重心有望上移

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 5274.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 5410.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.95% [1] - Short-term supply and cost dynamics are in a tight balance, but there are concerns about weakening end-user demand and potential fluctuations in crude oil prices that could lead to temporary corrections [2] - After the Spring Festival, expectations of resumed operations and improved US-China trade relations are likely to benefit exports, with no new production capacity expected in the coming years, indicating a gradual tightening of industry supply [2] Group 2 - As the weaving machines begin to shut down for the holiday, polyester production is decreasing, leading to a gradual accumulation of finished product inventory, with demand expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [2] - The current PTA production is relatively high, and the industry's production control is significant, with inventory accumulation expected to be lower than in previous years [2] - Although polyester inventory is accumulating, it remains at a low level, and recent PTA production has decreased, indicating limited self-driven demand and a focus on following raw material price fluctuations [2]