美境外供应紧张或更明显 银价破位近在咫尺

Group 1 - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, leading to a rapid depletion of physical inventories [2] - There is strong investment demand for silver ETFs, with a significant amount of silver being withdrawn and locked away, indicating a real-time supply squeeze rather than just a rise driven by safe-haven sentiment [2] - New investors appear to be driving the current silver market, while long-term holders are taking profits, resulting in noticeable selling pressure being absorbed by new buyers entering the market due to headlines and price fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The supply tightness is particularly evident outside the United States, with significant supply-demand imbalances and liquidity tightening in markets like London and Asia, reflected in the premium levels [2] - At the beginning of the year, concerns over tariffs led to a large influx of silver into New York, creating a premium in New York and a discount in London, with New York Mercantile Exchange inventories reaching approximately 530 million ounces [2] - As tariff concerns eased and demand surged from Asia, particularly India and China, the market dynamics reversed, exacerbated by ETF fund outflows from London [2] Group 3 - The current upward trend in silver prices is supported by a rising channel that began at $86.67, with the upper limit of $97.22 being breached [3] - If silver can maintain levels above $97.22, it will sustain a bullish technical outlook, with the MACD indicator showing increasing upward momentum [3] - However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76.98, indicating an overbought condition that may limit short-term upside potential, with potential pullbacks finding support at the 200-period simple moving average at $91.47 [3]