中银国际：供需紧张致价格持续上涨 存储产业链或存在高度确定性机会

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is entering a new cycle driven by AI and data expansion, with supply-demand tension leading to continuous price increases. The demand for new technologies like HBM is strong, and opportunities for domestic storage development are emerging, leading to an "outperform" rating for the industry [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The storage market is experiencing continuous growth due to increasing demand for storage technology across various sectors of the digital economy. AI-driven storage demand is growing significantly faster than other segments, becoming a key driver of global storage market expansion. The demand for storage in AI servers is rapidly increasing, and the overall storage demand in the server sector is expected to maintain high growth rates [1][2] - Storage product prices are projected to see significant increases by 2025, with further potential rises in 2026. This price surge is driven by both AI servers and general servers, compounded by structural capacity transitions and competitive demand across multiple dimensions, indicating that shortages and price hikes may persist for an extended period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural supply constraints are expected to continue, with original manufacturers competing for new technological advancements. Capital expenditures in 2026 will focus on process technology upgrades and advanced techniques like hybrid bonding, with limited growth in bit supply, suggesting a persistent supply-demand imbalance throughout the year [2] - The storage industry is transitioning into a "post-HBM era" with the emergence of HBF, driven by rapid growth in the AI inference market. High-performance HBM and LPDDR5X remain in strong demand from leading international suppliers for AI infrastructure [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Developments - Domestic manufacturers are striving for global standards and self-sufficiency in the supply chain, with product strategies focusing on platformization and category upgrades. Longxin Storage has launched LPDDR5X products, while Yangtze Memory Technologies is progressing towards 100% domestic equipment for its third-phase construction [3] - The combination of CBA and 4F2 technologies, along with advancements in hybrid bonding, is seen as a crucial path for domestic storage to achieve competitive advantages. Longyang Storage and Longxin Storage are positioned as leading domestic storage chip manufacturers, with stable operations and a strong commitment to development, presenting numerous opportunities for the industry [3]