Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions from mining strikes, and long-term demand growth driven by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 23, copper futures in Shanghai opened at 99,800 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 101,710 CNY/ton and closing at 101,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 640 CNY or 0.64% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract increased by 58,787 hands to 232,815 hands, while open interest rose by 8,970 hands to 231,437 hands [1]. - In the London market, copper prices also saw an increase, with the latest quote at 12,930 USD/ton, up by 90 USD or 0.70% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global copper supply has been significantly impacted by mining accidents in regions such as Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to production interruptions [3]. - A strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to halt production of 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [3]. - Domestic refined copper production in China for December was reported at 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but market consumption remains subdued due to seasonal factors [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with the GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 revised to 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3% [2]. - The core PCE price index, a key inflation measure, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and suggesting a stable short-term outlook from the Federal Reserve [2]. - A weakening U.S. dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more attractive to investors using other currencies, providing additional support for metal prices [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current low demand in the Chinese spot market, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive due to ongoing developments in artificial intelligence and energy transition [4]. - The market is expected to continue trading within a high range, influenced by both macroeconomic recovery and supply constraints from mining disruptions [4].
长江有色：23日铜价上涨 市场交易活跃度转冷
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-23 08:36