宏观情绪修复提振，铸造铝偏强上行

Group 1 - The main futures contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) showed a strong upward trend, closing at 22,995 yuan, an increase of 190 yuan or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 9,779 lots, up by 1,393 lots, and an open interest of 16,595 lots, down by 1,319 lots [1] - The average price of casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,100 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; A380 at 25,300 yuan/ton, up by 200 yuan; ADC12 at 23,800 yuan/ton, up by 200 yuan; ZL102 at 25,500 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; and ZLD104 at 25,400 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan [1] - The macroeconomic environment improved with a rebound in global stock markets and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to lower rates twice in the second half of 2026 by 25 basis points each time [1] Group 2 - The supply of scrap aluminum is tightening due to seasonal factors, limiting the production capacity of recycled aluminum enterprises before the Spring Festival; however, the demand for aluminum alloys remains resilient, supported by ongoing policy benefits for new energy vehicles in 2026 and increased import quotas for electric vehicles from Canada [2] - In the spot market, aluminum alloy prices are rising, with suppliers holding firm on prices, while downstream buyers have returned to a wait-and-see approach after a brief period of low-price procurement, indicating limited overall consumption improvement [2] - The tight supply of scrap aluminum persists, and the operating rate of casting aluminum remains stable at a low level, leading to a continued balanced supply-demand situation, with cost support expected to maintain a fluctuating price trend for casting aluminum [2]