长江有色：23日铅价小涨 报价偏强节前备货刚需成交

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, influenced by supply constraints and demand dynamics, with expectations of a strong performance in the short term due to pre-holiday stocking and structural demand support [1][2][7]. Supply Constraints - The lead market is facing systemic tightening in supply due to continuous shortages in primary lead and low processing fees, which pressure smelter profits. Seasonal production halts and planned maintenance before the Spring Festival further limit output [3]. - The recycled lead sector is also constrained by difficulties in collecting waste batteries during winter, rising compliance costs, and stricter environmental policies, leading to reduced effective supply [3]. Demand Support - Short-term demand is driven by pre-holiday stocking as downstream distributors increase purchases to ensure sales after the holiday. Long-term demand is supported by traditional replacement needs for automotive starter batteries and rapid growth in the emerging energy storage battery sector [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - In a tight supply-demand balance, profit distribution within the industry chain is shifting towards upstream resource providers, giving mining companies pricing power. Midstream smelting companies face a divided situation, with primary lead firms benefiting from by-product revenues, while recycled lead firms struggle with raw material shortages and high costs [5]. Leading Companies' Strategies - Leading companies are demonstrating strategic resilience by accelerating transitions to high-value areas such as lead-based new materials and resource recycling. They are building closed-loop supply chains to enhance raw material security and stabilize cost fluctuations [6]. Market Activity - The spot market is showing a strong trading atmosphere, characterized by firm pricing and transactions driven by essential demand. Sellers are reluctant to sell due to tight supply expectations, maintaining strong quotes despite limited acceptance of high prices from downstream enterprises [6]. Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, supported by supply constraints and pre-holiday demand. Key variables post-holiday will include the recovery pace of smelting operations and the sustainability of core demand from automotive and energy storage sectors [7].