智通财经网·2026-01-23 09:27Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the semiconductor industry, particularly storage chip manufacturers like SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US), is expected to experience significant profitability due to a severe storage shortage driven by artificial intelligence demands in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Analyst CJ Muse indicates that the current storage cycle is fundamentally different from previous cycles, with a seven-year downtrend in NAND, leading to no urgency among manufacturers to increase capacity [1] - Muse predicts that earnings for SanDisk could reach $10 to $12 per share in the March quarter, significantly exceeding the market expectation of around $4 [1] Group 2 - The storage shortage is anticipated to directly impact consumers, with a projected 10% decline in PC shipments and at least a 5% decline in smartphone shipments this year [2] - Muse warns that high-end market prices will increase, while lower-end markets will experience "downgrading" of storage configurations due to severe supply constraints [2] - The establishment of new greenfield wafer fabs will take over two years, meaning that efforts by Samsung and SK Hynix to increase capacity may not alleviate shortages until early 2027 [2] - Muse believes that the shortage issue may not be fully resolved until 2028, driven by additional demand from high bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI-driven servers [2] - This cycle is described as unprecedented, with expectations that peak earnings multiples will be higher and that peak earnings will occur in 2027 rather than 2026, indicating further upside potential [2]