日本央行按兵不动，未来仍有加息空间

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% while raising inflation outlook, closely monitoring the impact of last month's rate hike on the economy and awaiting election results that may affect national spending plans [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged aligns with the expectations of all surveyed economists, maintaining borrowing costs at a 30-year high [3]. - The voting results showed that one committee member supported a rate hike, while the others favored maintaining the current rate [3]. Inflation Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that potential inflation is expected to rise moderately, and if economic conditions develop as anticipated, further rate hikes may occur [3]. - Ueda emphasized that inflation is unlikely to significantly exceed the latest forecasts, with overall inflation likely to fall below the 2% target [4]. Economic and Price Projections - The BOJ's report on economic and price outlook suggests that while there are localized weaknesses, the overall economy is slowly recovering, supported by policy measures and a rebound in overseas economies [7]. - The report predicts real GDP growth rates for fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively [7]. Consumer Price Trends - The report anticipates that core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, will see a year-on-year increase of less than 2% in the first half of 2026 due to the waning impact of rising food prices and effective government measures [8]. - It is noted that the mechanism of wage and price interlinkage will continue to support a gradual rise in core prices, with expectations of price increases aligning with the 2% stability target in the latter half of the outlook period [8]. Financial Environment - The current financial environment in Japan remains accommodative, with smooth financial intermediation and overall stability in the financial system [8].