行业景气度欠佳叠加能源替代加速 2025年柴油消费延续收缩态势

Group 1 - The apparent consumption of diesel in 2025 is projected to be 19,298.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.483 million tons year-on-year, representing a decline of 2.27% [1] - The diesel demand is facing multiple challenges including technological substitution, policy adjustments, industry transformation, and market competition, leading to an overall downward trend [1] - Monthly data indicates that diesel consumption showed a "first decline then rise, stabilizing towards the end of the year" trend, with negative growth observed from January to May, particularly a significant drop of 8.6% in April [1] Group 2 - The transportation sector, which accounts for over 80% of diesel consumption, is experiencing reduced oil usage primarily due to increased energy substitution [3] - The logistics prosperity index averaged 50.83% for the year, indicating a slight year-on-year decline of 0.87%, while the usage rate of traditional fuel trucks is being pressured by the rise of new energy and LNG trucks [3] - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks increased by 12% year-on-year, while sales of new energy heavy trucks surged by 182%, with a penetration rate exceeding 28%, significantly up from 13.61% in 2024 [3] Group 3 - The real estate sector's policies in 2025 focus on "stopping the decline and stabilizing," but the ongoing drop in housing prices and reduced rigid demand have not alleviated the downward trend [4] - National real estate development investment in 2025 is projected at 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with housing construction area down by 10.0% [4] - The apparent consumption of diesel is expected to decline further to 18,150 million tons in 2026, with a projected drop of approximately 5.95% [4]