胡捷：全球化进入规则重塑期，“十五五”开局挑战与机遇并存

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the resilience and development stability of the Chinese economy despite multiple external pressures, supported by proactive fiscal and stable monetary policies [3][4] - The emergence of strategic emerging industries, such as artificial intelligence and green energy, is seen as a core driver of new productive forces in China [3][4] - The transition to "Globalization 2.0" is characterized by a new order intertwining national security, value recognition, and economic interests, moving away from the previous focus on cost and efficiency [4][5] Economic Outlook - China's exports have remained robust amidst significant global trade adjustments, achieving a notable surplus last year, which reflects the comprehensive competitiveness of its industrial chain [3][4] - The ongoing release of policy dividends, combined with a virtuous cycle of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, is expected to provide certainty for the Chinese economy to navigate through cycles [3][4] - The strategy of promoting domestic and international dual circulation is accelerating, leveraging China's vast market advantages to release domestic demand potential [4][9] Globalization 2.0 - Chinese enterprises are transitioning from mere product exports to higher stages of capacity cooperation, technology output, brand building, and international management standards [10][11] - The leading advantages in digital economy and green technology position China to participate in and even shape new international rules [10][11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle in 2026, with a projected reduction of 50 to 100 basis points, as inflation trends downward and structural unemployment pressures rise [10][11] - Despite potential short-term political disturbances, the Fed's decision-making independence is expected to maintain a policy path aligned with economic fundamentals [10][11] Conclusion - The world is undergoing unprecedented changes, and while the external environment for China's economic development is becoming increasingly complex, the country possesses the necessary industrial foundation, market space, innovation momentum, and effective policy tools to seize opportunities in the era of Globalization 2.0 [11]