权重下跌，资金流入中小盘，该怎么办？【下周展望2026-1-23】

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at approximately 4136 points, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.79% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%. The total market turnover exceeded 3 trillion, with nearly 4000 stocks rising [1] - Despite a slight increase in indices, there is significant rotation of funds in sectors such as solar energy, commercial aerospace, precious metals, and oil and gas. However, there has been a noticeable net outflow of funds from stock ETFs, indicating strong selling pressure from institutional investors [1][3] Policy and Market Sentiment - Current policies are aimed at suppressing index growth to prevent excessive leverage, aligning with a regulatory focus on stability and risk prevention. However, there is clear support for technology, AI, and high-end manufacturing sectors [3] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound movement until the end of the year, with no significant breakthroughs anticipated. While short-term sentiment may decline, it is not expected to end completely [3][4] Sector Performance - The main driving force remains the technology sector, particularly driven by AI expansion. The market is advised to stay focused on this long-term trend despite short-term pressures [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5% year-to-date. However, the market is characterized by individual stock performance rather than broad index movements [6] - The U.S. Nasdaq has not reached new highs but has also not seen significant declines, indicating a period of structural differentiation. Strong performance is noted in the Dow Jones index, particularly in consumer and banking sectors [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market is largely stagnant, with the exception of precious metals, indicating a lack of movement towards inflation. The expectation is for a gradual recovery in prices, which aligns with the government's policy direction [10][11] - The BT market has seen a decline of 6.5% this week, with a price of 88900, and is expected to remain stagnant throughout the year [12]