崔东树：2025年12月末全国乘用车行业库存365万辆 去库天数为66天

Group 1: Industry Inventory Trends - As of December 2025, the national passenger car inventory stands at 3.65 million units, a decrease of 140,000 units from the previous month and an increase of 600,000 units compared to December 2024, indicating a year-end inventory decline trend [1][18] - The inventory level supports a future sales period of 66 days, which is an increase of 20 days compared to December 2024's 46 days [1][31] - The industry inventory saw a peak of 3.94 million units in December 2022, followed by a gradual decline to 3.25 million units in April 2023, before rising again to 3.92 million units in November 2023 [25] Group 2: Retail Sales Performance - In December 2024, the national passenger car market retail sales reached 2.3 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [6] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 23.78 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4% [6] - The retail sales growth rate fluctuated throughout the year, starting from a negative 12% in January to a positive 11% in June, followed by a gradual slowdown in the latter half of the year [4][6] Group 3: Export Trends - In December 2025, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) totaled 590,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decrease of 2% [11] - The total passenger car exports for the year reached 5.74 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [11] Group 4: Production Insights - December 2025 saw passenger car production at 2.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 10% [14] - The total production for the year amounted to 29.61 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10% [14] Group 5: Market Forecast and Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution, with a predicted optimism level of 14% for January, indicating a challenging outlook for manufacturers [23] - The current inventory level of 3.65 million units suggests significant pressure for inventory digestion in the coming months [23][31]