悄悄上涨20%！这个板块大反转了？

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by favorable policies and increasing consumer demand, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1][5][44]. Group 1: Market Performance - The aviation transportation sector has seen an overall increase of over 20% in the last three months and nearly 40% in the past year [3]. - Following the National Civil Aviation Work Conference, policies aimed at improving flight quality and passenger experience have been introduced, contributing to the sector's positive sentiment [7][8]. - The average ticket price for economy class in 2025 is projected to be 738 yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, following a 12.7% decline in 2024 [12]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Civil Aviation Administration has outlined measures to combat "involution" in the industry, including establishing a cost monitoring mechanism and prohibiting the sale of tickets below government guidance prices [8][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant step to address the long-standing issue of price wars that have eroded industry profits [14][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for air travel is on the rise, with domestic passenger volume reaching 85 million in January, a 28% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [15][16]. - The overall passenger load factor for civil aviation is expected to reach 84.9% in 2025, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 and 1.7 percentage points from 2019 [19]. - The industry is facing a supply constraint, with the growth rate of the fleet at its lowest in over two decades, projected to be 2-3% in the coming years [32][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The aviation sector is anticipated to enter a phase of stable development characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, contingent on the success of the "anti-involution" measures [21][47]. - The industry is expected to benefit from rising airport revenues due to increased flight volumes, leading to improved valuations for both the aviation and airport sectors [42][43]. - The third quarter of 2025 marked the first collective profit for the three major state-owned airlines in five years, indicating a potential turning point for profitability in the sector [45][46].