世界支付手段的货币度量衡之变

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of gold, silver, and key minerals like rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel indicate a shift in the global value assessment system from a gold-backed "value storage logic" to an "industrial support logic" based on industrial materials, with China emerging as a key player in this transformation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, reflecting increased risk aversion and a crisis of trust in traditional fiat currency systems [1]. - Prices of key minerals have surged simultaneously, indicating a broader trend beyond simple supply and demand fluctuations [1]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The strategic significance of key minerals has evolved, becoming a new type of "quasi-currency anchor," with China controlling over 60% of global rare earth production and 80% of battery material capacity [3]. - Developing countries purchasing Chinese electric vehicles or batteries gain access to a self-sustaining industrial ecosystem, reducing reliance on the US dollar [3]. Group 3: US Response - The US has reacted to these trends by reinforcing its hegemony through policies aimed at maintaining control over key mineral supply chains, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the establishment of the Mineral Security Partnership [4]. - The US aims to replicate the "petrodollar" model for key minerals, fearing the loss of resource pricing power [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The complexity and diversity of key minerals make them less suitable for single currency transactions compared to oil, which is more standardized [5]. - The value realization of key minerals increasingly depends on deep integration with China's industrial ecosystem, making transactions in RMB more appealing to many countries [5]. - The global financial landscape is shifting towards a multi-currency system, with potential coexistence of "petrodollars," "digital euros," and "industrial RMB" [5].