What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Elevance Health (ELV) Q4 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Elevance Health (ELV) is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $3.07, reflecting a decline of 20.1% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 10.1% to $49.53 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.2% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts predict 'Revenues- Service fees' at $2.13 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.7% [5]. - 'Revenues- Premiums' are estimated at $40.69 billion, reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase [5]. - 'Revenues- Net investment income' is expected to reach $469.69 million, indicating a decline of 10.9% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- Product revenue' is projected at $6.82 billion, a 1.5% year-over-year increase [6]. Membership Metrics - Total Medical Membership is projected to be 45.40 million, down from 45.73 million in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Medical Membership - Medicare - Medicare Advantage' is estimated at 2.24 million, up from 2.07 million year-over-year [7]. - 'Medical Membership - Medicaid' is expected to be 8.60 million, down from 8.92 million year-over-year [7]. - 'Medical Membership - Federal Employees Health Benefits' is projected at 1.63 million, slightly down from 1.66 million year-over-year [8]. - Total Medicare membership is expected to reach 3.11 million, up from 2.96 million year-over-year [8]. - 'Medical Membership - Commercial Risk-Based - Individual' is estimated at 1.33 million, up from 1.29 million year-over-year [9]. - 'Benefit Expense Ratio' is forecasted to be 93.4%, compared to 92.4% year-over-year [9]. - 'Medical Membership - Commercial Fee-Based' is expected to be 27.08 million, down from 27.20 million year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance - Elevance Health shares have returned +8.4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change [10]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance relative to the overall market [10].