产品单价、出口退税率双双下滑，野马电池2025年净利最高预降70%

Core Viewpoint - Yema Battery (605378) forecasts a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, estimating a drop of 58% to 70% compared to the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 45.83 million and 64.17 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 88.61 million to 106.94 million yuan from the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of 58% to 70% [4]. - The forecasted net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 38.62 million and 57.92 million yuan, down by 85.10 million to 104.41 million yuan from the previous year, indicating a decline of 59.50% to 73% [4]. - In the previous year, the company reported a total profit of 175.65 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 152.78 million yuan, and a net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 143.02 million yuan [4]. Reasons for Performance Changes - The decline in performance is attributed to increased market competition and industry trends, leading to a decrease in sales prices for some products [5]. - Rising commodity prices in the second half of 2025 are expected to exert pressure on the company's cost structure [5]. - Changes in export tax rebate policies, with the rebate rate dropping from 13% to 9%, have increased cost pressures in the export segment, contributing to a decrease in product gross margins [5]. - Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have also impacted performance, as the company's export products are priced in USD, and the appreciation of the RMB since April 2025 has led to reduced revenue when converted to RMB [5]. Recent Financial Results - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.028 billion yuan, an increase of 8.15% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.66 million yuan, a decrease of 53.24% [6][7]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 443.44 million yuan, up 4.37% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 24.03 million yuan, down 50.58% [6][7]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 26.45 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 54.99% [9].