AMD's Resurgence: Outpacing Nvidia in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Healthy competition between AMD and Nvidia has driven innovation and investor returns, with AMD significantly outperforming Nvidia in 2025 [1] Performance Summary - AMD shares rose approximately 77% in 2025, nearly doubling Nvidia's 39% gain, with a notable divergence in performance in the latter half of the year after AMD secured a multi-year deal with OpenAI [2] - AMD's disciplined execution and expanding AI footprint present a compelling investment opportunity as the company trades around $250 per share in early 2026 [5] Revenue Growth - The data center segment, now AMD's core growth engine, delivered record revenue of $4.3 billion in Q3 2025, up 22% year-over-year, driven by demand for 5th Gen EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators [6] - AMD's MI300 series exceeded expectations, capturing market share amid Nvidia's supply constraints, with management projecting over 60% CAGR in data center revenue in the coming years [7] Competitive Positioning - The MI355X accelerator is positioned as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia's offerings, gaining traction for its performance-per-dollar advantages, which helped AMD capture share in inference workloads [8] - AMD's total revenue growth accelerated to the mid-30% range in Q3 2025, leading to significant earnings expansion and a trend of exceeding expectations [9] Nvidia Comparison - Nvidia faced challenges in 2025, including potential saturation in training demand and export restrictions impacting revenue, which contributed to AMD's relative outperformance [10] - Despite Nvidia's impressive quarterly growth, AMD's lower valuation and diversifying customer base attracted investor interest, leading to a rotation towards AMD [11] Strategic Partnerships - AMD's partnerships with major companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, along with the OpenAI deal, validate its position in the market and provide a competitive edge [12] Future Outlook - The AI inferencing market, projected to grow faster than training, aligns with AMD's strengths, particularly with the upcoming MI400 series accelerators promising significant efficiency and scale improvements [13] - Analysts expect AMD's Q4 2025 earnings report to be a key catalyst, with EPS estimates increased by 0.76% and anticipated revenue growth of 26% to $9.65 billion [14] Earnings Expectations - AMD currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.01%, indicating potential for a positive earnings surprise in the upcoming report [17]