Prediction: Quantum Computing, IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Will Crash In 2026. Here's What You Should Buy Instead

Core Insights - Quantum computing is viewed as a potentially revolutionary technology, but the industry may face a reckoning due to inflated valuations following a significant rise in 2025 [1] Valuation Concerns - D-Wave has trailing-12-month (TTM) sales of just over $24 million but commands a market capitalization of $10 billion, while Rigetti has TTM revenue of $12.7 million and an $8.5 billion market cap [3] - Quantum Computing reported TTM revenue of only $550,000 with a market cap nearing $3 billion, and IonQ, despite a TTM revenue of nearly $80 million, has a market cap of $18 billion [4] Commercialization Timeline - There is skepticism regarding the timeline for useful quantum computing, with some experts suggesting that large-scale commercial applications are still "far off" [6] - Morningstar's analysis estimates early commercialization could be 5 to 10 years away, while general-use quantum computing may take up to 20 years to materialize [6] Technical Challenges - The technology is still largely in the realm of pure science rather than practical engineering, with some academics questioning the feasibility of useful quantum computing [7] - Notable figures in the field, such as Gil Kalai and Mikhail Dyakonov, argue that essential problems like quantum error correction may be inherently impossible, suggesting timelines for practical applications could extend beyond three decades [8] Market Dynamics - Quantum pure-play companies have achieved substantial market capitalizations despite generating minimal revenue, indicating a potential bubble in the investment cycle similar to past market phenomena [9]