再创新高！金银牛市还能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a significant surge, with both metals reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, London gold reached a peak of $4,967.37 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4,918.783, marking a decrease of 0.35% [1][2]. - London silver showed a more robust performance, increasing by 2.01% to $98.081 per ounce, with a high of $99.392, just shy of the $100 mark [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.03% to $4,915 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,970 [4]. - COMEX silver futures surged by 1.58% to $97.895 per ounce, reaching a peak of $99.395 [5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to tariffs imposed by the U.S. and conflicts in the Middle East [5][6]. - A decline in trust towards dollar-denominated assets has led to increased investment in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [5]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, reducing the holding costs for gold and silver, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, providing strong support for prices [5][6]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Unlike gold, silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy, leading to a continuous supply shortage over the past five years [6]. - Factors such as tightening export controls and historically low inventories have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, resulting in silver's price elasticity being significantly higher than that of gold [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a phase of short-term volatility while maintaining a long-term upward trend, influenced by profit-taking and underlying support dynamics [7]. - Short-term traders are advised to avoid chasing highs and to focus on key support levels, while long-term investors should consider gold and silver as hedges against dollar risk and geopolitical uncertainties [7].