Alcoa vs. Ryerson: Which Aluminum Stock Should You Bet On?

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI) are key players in the aluminum sector, with high aluminum prices driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions [2] - The demand for aluminum is increasing due to its applications in electric vehicles, recycled materials, and the aerospace industry [3] Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa benefits from increased aluminum demand and a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, which has raised domestic prices [5] - In 2025, Alcoa's Aluminum segment production rose 5% year-over-year to 2,319 kilometric tons, with third-party revenues increasing by 15.6% [6][7] - The Alumina segment faced a 3.9% production decline to 9,640 kilometric tons in 2025, but is expected to recover in 2026 [8] - Alcoa's acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024 enhances its position in the market and is expected to create long-term value [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2026 sales indicates a 7% growth, with EPS expected to rise by 18.3% [16] - Alcoa's stock has increased by 68.7% over the past year, and it trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.16X, below its three-year median [20][22] Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI) - Ryerson's diversified structure allows it to offset weaknesses in certain markets with strengths in others, benefiting from increased infrastructure spending and reshoring [10] - In the first nine months of 2025, aluminum product line shipments remained stable at 143,000 tons, with revenues rising 7.7% to $868 million [12] - However, revenues from carbon steel and stainless steel product lines declined due to lower average selling prices [13] - RYI expects fourth-quarter net sales between $1.07 billion and $1.11 billion, with a projected decline in customer shipments [14] - Ryerson's long-term debt increased by 6.7% to $498.2 million, raising concerns about its financial health [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RYI's 2026 sales implies an 11.4% growth, but EPS is expected to rise significantly by 256.3% [18] - Ryerson's stock has gained 38.7% over the past year, but it trades at a higher forward P/E ratio of 22.23X compared to its three-year median [20][22] Investment Outlook - Alcoa's strong momentum in the aluminum segment and favorable valuation make it a more attractive investment compared to Ryerson, which faces challenges in manufacturing demand and high debt levels [22][23]