欧洲债市：法国和德国国债利差降至2024年6月以来最低

Group 1 - The French Prime Minister Le Maire survived two no-confidence votes regarding the 2026 budget, leading to a decrease in the yield spread of French 10-year bonds relative to German bonds to 58 basis points, the lowest since June 2024 [1][5] - This trend also resulted in a narrowing of the yield spread between Italian and German bonds, which fell to 60 basis points for the first time since 2008 [1][5] - German bonds experienced a decline, particularly in the mid-yield curve, following stronger-than-expected January PMI data [1][5] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate a 1 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank this year, with a low probability of a rate cut on Thursday [1][5] - UK bonds showed mixed performance, with the market adjusting its expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England to 36 basis points this year, suggesting a preference for a single 25 basis point cut [1][5]