Packaging Corp to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, with revenue estimates indicating a 12.9% growth year-over-year, while earnings estimates suggest a slight decline of 0.8% compared to the previous year [1][5]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG's fourth-quarter revenues is $2.42 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase from the prior year's figure [1][5]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $2.45 per share, which has remained unchanged over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 0.8% [1][2]. Segment Performance - The Packaging segment is projected to see a revenue increase of 15.2% year-over-year, supported by the acquisition of Greif's containerboard business [5][6]. - The Paper segment is expected to report revenues of $153 million, suggesting a 1.2% growth from the previous year, despite a slight volume decline of 0.8% [8]. Earnings Surprise History - PKG has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 0.3% [2][3]. - The model predicts that PKG is unlikely to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, as indicated by an Earnings ESP of -1.84% [4][6]. Recent Developments - The acquisition of Greif's containerboard business, which includes two mills and several plants across the U.S., is expected to positively impact PKG's earnings immediately [6][7]. - The Packaging segment's volume is anticipated to rise by 11.1% year-over-year, with favorable price and mix impacts contributing an additional 4.2% [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, PKG shares have decreased by 6.3%, compared to a 10.3% decline in the industry [11].