Tether Slowdown Signals Caution for Crypto Markets

Core Insights - The demand for Tether's USDT stablecoin has significantly slowed down in January 2026, raising concerns about its impact on the broader crypto market and potential Bitcoin price rallies [1] Group 1: Tether's Circulating Supply and Market Impact - Tether's circulating supply is experiencing a sharp slowdown, indicating slower growth in stablecoin liquidity, which historically influences overall crypto market momentum [2] - The 60-day average of USDT market cap changes shows a decline from $15 billion to $3.3 billion since late November 2025, suggesting a significant reduction in Tether's expansion [3] - The slowdown in USDT issuance could be temporary, with market experts projecting stablecoin payments to reach $56 trillion by 2030, indicating potential future growth [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Correlation and Market Dynamics - Rapid increases in USDT market capitalization have historically coincided with Bitcoin rallies, while slowdowns in liquidity growth often lead to Bitcoin consolidation or downtrends [4] - The 60-day market cap change metric for USDT has not yet turned negative, but there is a notable decline in USDT market capitalization on Ethereum [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Capital Flows - USDT has been trading consistently below $1, indicating capital outflows as stablecoin holders opt to exit rather than invest in new positions [5] - Tether Treasury's recent burn of 3 billion USDT, the largest in three years, signals caution among large holders amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6] - If outflows accelerate, the stablecoin market's total capitalization near $308 billion could face a corrective phase, increasing the risk of a broader downturn in the crypto market [6] Group 4: Unique Market Participants - Iran's central bank has emerged as an unusual buyer of USDT, purchasing $507 million to bypass US sanctions and stabilize the rial, highlighting unique dynamics in the stablecoin market [7]