Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-24 00:35Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai 50 Index has experienced a rare nine consecutive days of decline, marking only the second occurrence in its history, with a total drop of 3.55% during this period [2][8]. Market Performance - As of January 23, the total market capitalization of the Shanghai 50 Index constituents exceeds 27 trillion yuan, accounting for over 20% of the total A-share market capitalization [2]. - The index's previous nine-day decline is compared to a similar event in 2013, which saw a cumulative drop of over 9% [2]. - The recent downturn has led to significant capital outflows from ETFs tracking the Shanghai 50 Index, with net outflows exceeding 41.9 billion yuan from January 13 to 23, primarily from the Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF [4]. Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai 50 Index has recorded 33 instances of consecutive declines lasting more than five days, with an average drop of nearly 8% in earlier years [6]. - The average decline during these periods has decreased over time, with the most recent occurrences since 2021 averaging a drop of 4.37% [6]. Future Outlook - Following a series of declines, there is a high probability of a rebound in the A-share market. Historical data indicates that after similar downturns, the Shanghai 50 Index has a greater than 78% chance of experiencing five or more days of gains within ten trading days [8]. - The recent nine-day decline is viewed as a result of style rotation and short-term sentiment release rather than a systemic deterioration of fundamentals [8]. Stock Performance - During the nine-day decline, over 80% of the Shanghai 50 Index constituents experienced at least five days of losses, with notable declines in stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Hengrui Medicine [10]. - Conversely, some stocks, including Langchao Technology and Zijin Mining, have shown resilience, with several companies expected to report positive earnings growth for 2025 [15][18]. - A total of 76 stocks in the electronic, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors are projected to have positive earnings for 2025, with only 11 underperforming relative to the Shanghai Index's 23.4% increase since the beginning of 2025 [15].