Morgan Stanley Expects Soft Industry Backdrop to Persist for Vail Resorts (MTN)

Core Insights - Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) is facing a challenging industry backdrop, with Morgan Stanley lowering its price target to $150 from $151 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating [2] - The company has revised its earnings outlook for 2026 downward due to one of the weakest early snowfall periods in over 30 years, expecting full-year earnings to fall below previous guidance [3] - Skier visits across Vail's North American resorts are down 20% compared to the same period last year, and lift revenue has decreased by 1.8% [3] Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates muted industry fundamentals for gaming, lodging, and leisure in 2025, with a similar outlook for 2026, suggesting a shift in consumer spending towards goods rather than services due to interest-rate trends [2] - The ski industry, including Vail, is increasingly adopting a subscription-style model to mitigate the impact of weather on results, encouraging customers to purchase multi-region passes [4] Company Operations - Vail Resorts operates a large network of destination and local ski resorts and manages premium hotels under the RockResorts brand, along with vacation rentals and condos near major mountain destinations [4]