How to use relative strength to gauge a market rally and pick winners

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market driven by AI raises the question of whether it remains concentrated among a few mega-cap stocks or if broader market participation is emerging [1]. Group 1: Relative Strength Analysis - Relative strength is calculated by dividing the price of one market by another, indicating which market is outperforming [2]. - Various ETFs can be analyzed using relative strength, such as consumer discretionary versus consumer staples and large-cap versus small-cap stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Market Participation - The analysis focuses on the S&P 500 using both market cap weighted and equal weighted calculations to assess participation from larger versus smaller stocks [5]. - A rising relative strength line indicates that larger stocks are dominating performance, while a declining line suggests broader participation from the index [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data shows a peak concentration during the dot-com boom, followed by a broader market rally until 2010, and a recent trend of increasing concentration again, aligning with the performance of the MAG7 stocks [7][10]. - The past few years have been characterized by the development of AI capabilities, with expectations that the next phase will involve broader economic participation from more companies [8]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The focus for 2026 is on whether more companies within the S&P 500 will contribute to market performance, rather than solely on the performance of mega-cap stocks like Nvidia and Tesla [12]. - Cyclical industries such as industrials, retail, and banks are expected to benefit from growth in the first half of 2026, indicating a potential for broader market participation [13].