Renewed Geopolitical Risks Lift Crude Oil Prices

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant increases due to geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar, with crude oil reaching a one-week high [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The Kremlin's statement regarding unresolved territorial issues with Ukraine suggests that the Russia-Ukraine war will persist, maintaining restrictions on Russian crude and supporting higher oil prices [2]. - President Trump's renewed threats of military action against Iran, coupled with the deployment of US Navy vessels to the Middle East, are contributing to the rise in crude prices [3]. - Unrest in Iran, where security forces have killed thousands of protesters, poses a risk to crude production, as any escalation could disrupt the country's output of over 3 million barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev oil fields are temporarily shut down due to power generator fires, resulting in a reduction of approximately 900,000 barrels per day of crude production that affects the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal [5].