Crude Oil Rallies on Dollar Weakness and Heightened Geopolitical Risks

Group 1: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Crude Prices - Unrest in Iran, OPEC's fourth-largest producer, is affecting crude prices as security forces have killed thousands of protesters, with potential disruptions to production if protests escalate [1] - The US is threatening to limit dollar supply for Iraqi oil sales, pressuring Iraq's politicians to exclude Iran-backed militia groups, which is also supporting crude prices [2] - The Kremlin's statement regarding unresolved territorial issues with Ukraine suggests ongoing conflict, maintaining restrictions on Russian crude and supporting oil prices [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Production Updates - Crude oil and gasoline prices rose sharply, with crude oil reaching a one-week high, supported by a decline in the dollar index and increased geopolitical risks [4] - Kazakhstan's oil production has been curtailed by 900,000 bpd due to power generator fires, impacting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal [5] - The IEA has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd, while the EIA raised its US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd [6] Group 3: Supply Chain and Inventory Insights - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers fell by 8.6% week-over-week, indicating strong demand, particularly from China, which is set to increase crude imports by 10% month-over-month [7] - OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with December production rising by 40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd, as they aim to restore previous cuts [8] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have limited Russia's crude oil export capabilities, further tightening global oil supplies [9] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Rig Count - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories are 2.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, while gasoline inventories are 5.0% above the average [10] - The number of active US oil rigs rose by 1 to 411, slightly above a 4.25-year low, indicating a decline in rig count over the past 2.5 years [11]