马云预言成真！2026年有多套房的家庭，要面对 4 个现实问题

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is entering a new phase characterized by "differentiation and stabilization," as the speculative bubble fades and the focus shifts back to housing as a necessity, aligning with Jack Ma's earlier predictions [1] Group 1: Challenges in the Second-Hand Housing Market - The liquidity crisis in the second-hand housing market is evident, with over 8.5 million listings and an average transaction cycle of 187 days, leading to a buyer's market where sellers must reduce prices by 10%-20% to sell [3] - Non-prime properties, particularly those purchased at high prices in 2020-2021, are struggling to find buyers, with some properties seeing price drops of up to 40% without any interest [3] Group 2: Rising Holding Costs - The cost of holding properties has increased significantly, with many homeowners facing monthly mortgage payments that can exceed 50% of their income, especially for those who bought at high interest rates [5] - Additional costs such as property management fees and potential new property taxes further strain finances, with annual costs for multiple properties reaching tens of thousands [5] Group 3: Pressure on Upgrading and Replacement - Families looking to upgrade their homes face significant challenges, including high costs for down payments and increased transaction costs, making the "sell one buy one" strategy difficult [6][8] - Timing issues complicate the process, as homeowners risk being left without a place to live or facing high prices for new properties if they sell their current homes first [8] Group 4: Asset Value Depreciation - The introduction of affordable housing initiatives is diverting demand from mid-range properties, leading to a depreciation in value for non-prime assets [9] - In 2025, cities with declining populations are expected to see property prices drop by 10%, while even in major cities, non-core areas are experiencing price declines [9] Group 5: Strategies for Navigating the Market - The focus should shift from speculation to optimizing asset management, emphasizing cash flow stability and asset quality [10] - Homeowners are encouraged to sell non-prime properties to avoid further depreciation and to leverage favorable policies for refinancing and tax benefits [10]