野村陆挺：政策呵护牛市 适度“降温”举措确有必要

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, which is different from the "crazy bull" of 2015, with policies aimed at nurturing the market while preventing overheating and significant downturns [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) has risen from around 2700 points to 4136.16 points, marking a 0.33% increase as of January 22, with a total trading volume of 3.12 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The market has shown signs of cooling, with major exchanges raising margin requirements and a decrease in trading volume, indicating a need to prevent overheating [1][6]. Policy Measures - The effectiveness of policies in this slow bull market is evident, with a cautious approach taken since mid-2022 to avoid a repeat of the 2015 bubble [4][5]. - Recent monetary policies have been described as accommodative but less aggressive compared to previous significant adjustments, indicating a more measured approach to market support [5][6]. Economic Outlook - The stock market is expected to have a limited but positive impact on economic growth, with a consensus that the economy will improve in the latter half of the year due to a favorable stock market [7][9]. - Economic growth is predicted to follow a "front low, back high" pattern in 2026, influenced by base effects and potential policy support in the second half of the year [8][9].