渤海证券：扩内需、反内卷增量部署可期 市场延续震荡整理

Market Review - Major indices showed mixed performance in the past five trading days (January 16 - January 22), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.17% [1][5] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.58%, while the CSI 500 Index increased by 2.00% [1][5] - Trading volume significantly shrank, with a total turnover of 13.80 trillion yuan, leading to an average daily turnover of 2.76 trillion yuan, a decrease of 683.469 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [1][5] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that fixed asset investment in December 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November 2025 [1][5] - The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in December 2025 also slowed down, primarily due to policy rollbacks and high base effects [1][5] - Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 showed a pattern of high growth followed by low growth, with the annual target being successfully achieved [1][5] Policy Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a key macro policy focus, with plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2][6] - In the context of "anti-involution," mechanisms for capacity exit will be improved to address supply-demand imbalances [2][6] - The Ministry of Finance announced an increase in the total fiscal policy for 2026, ensuring necessary expenditure intensity, with a structural tilt towards boosting consumption and social welfare [2][6] Investment Strategy - Recent market adjustments have led to continued net outflows from ETFs and margin trading, with a narrowing scope for thematic investments [3][7] - Despite this, overall market trading enthusiasm remains, and a prolonged consolidation process is expected, with potential fluctuations in market sentiment [3][7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing capital expansion and domestic substitution processes, as well as in the non-ferrous metals sector supported by rising prices [3][7]