东莞证券：春季行情有望延续 把握结构性机会

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 and 4100 points, achieving a cumulative increase of 8.90% during a 17-day rally from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026 [1][5] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has significantly increased, with a historical record of over 30 trillion in trading volume for four consecutive trading days from January 9 to January 14, 2026 [1][5] - Multiple factors are contributing to the strong market performance, including reinforced policy expectations, global capital inflows, and an appreciating RMB, which provide direct liquidity support [1][6] Group 2 - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing a solid recovery, with steady market demand expansion, active service consumption, and resilient foreign trade [6] - The macroeconomic policy outlook remains positive, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key task for 2026, following a weak demand-side performance in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, indicating potential for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first quarter of 2026 [2][7] Group 3 - The spring market rally is expected to continue, driven by improved risk appetite and favorable liquidity conditions, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [3][8] - The market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven surge to a performance-driven slow bull market, with potential short-term adjustments around moving averages [3][8] - Key economic indicators, such as the PMI returning to expansion territory and positive price index performance, suggest ongoing support for market growth, although challenges remain in stabilizing growth [3][8] Group 4 - Investment focus should be on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology sectors driving modern industrial systems, and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][9]