稳定币的支付幻觉：3.5 万亿交易量 VS. 3900 亿真实支付

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that while stablecoin transaction volumes appear impressive, a significant portion does not represent real-world payments, highlighting the need for a clearer understanding of the actual payment landscape involving stablecoins [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stablecoin Transaction Volume - Stablecoins are gaining attention as a faster, cheaper, and programmable payment solution, with an annual transaction volume reported at $35 trillion [4]. - By December 2025, the adjusted 30-day moving average of stablecoin transaction volume is projected to reach $3.5 trillion, which is 2.3 times the combined total of Visa, PayPal, and remittance businesses [4]. - However, most of these transactions are not genuine end-user payments but rather involve internal fund transfers, trading, and automated blockchain activities [7][8]. Group 2: Actual Payment Scale of Stablecoins - According to Artemis Analytics, the actual scale of stablecoin payments is estimated to be around $390 billion in 2025, doubling from 2024, which is significantly lower than conventional estimates [3][8]. - This actual payment volume represents only 0.02% of the global payment total, indicating the necessity for a more nuanced interpretation of blockchain data [8]. - The analysis reveals that stablecoins are indeed present in the payment sector, showing growth and existing in an early stage, with substantial opportunities for future development [3][12]. Group 3: Growth Expectations and Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has expanded rapidly, with circulating supply surpassing $300 billion, compared to less than $30 billion in 2020 [8]. - Predictions suggest that by 2030, the supply of stablecoins could reach between $2 trillion and $4 trillion, with a strong focus from financial institutions on exploring stablecoin applications in various payment and settlement scenarios [8][9]. - The majority of real stablecoin payment transactions are concentrated in Asia, particularly in regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan, indicating uneven adoption across different markets [12][18]. Group 4: Payment Categories and Market Penetration - Stablecoin payments in the B2B sector dominate, accounting for approximately $226 billion, which is about 60% of the total stablecoin payment volume, with a year-on-year growth of 733% [17][18]. - Consumer-to-consumer (C2C) payments and consumer-to-business (C2B) payments also show growth, with C2C payments reaching $77 billion and C2B payments at $76 billion [17]. - The analysis indicates that stablecoins have the potential to reshape the payment landscape, but their widespread adoption will depend on technological advancements, regulatory improvements, and market implementation [19].