HAERS(SZ:002615) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-25 10:34Group 1: Export Performance - In December 2025, China's thermos cup export value reached 360 million USD, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, while the volume was 117 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1] - For the entire year, export value and volume experienced year-on-year changes of -4.5% and +9.3% respectively [1] - The increase in export volume is attributed to domestic suppliers offering discounts due to U.S. tariff disruptions, despite slight pressure on export prices [1] Group 2: Brand Dynamics - New brands are emerging strongly, with YETI's sales in major countries increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, while Stanley's sales grew by 5.2% [2] - Owala and Brumate saw significant sales increases of 81.9% and 14.7% respectively, while SimpleModern experienced a decline of 23.8% [2] - The rise of new brands like Owala is seen as enhancing the industry's ceiling, while established brands maintain solid performance through value binding with their respective customer bases [2] Group 3: Manufacturing Insights - The global supply share is expected to continue concentrating, with the company Halos seeing revenue growth of 2.9% but a profit decline of 55.5% in Q1-Q3 2025 [3] - Despite challenges from overseas capacity ramp-up and domestic brand investments, Halos maintains steady revenue through existing customer share increases and new client acquisitions [3] - The company's production capacity in Thailand is expected to enhance profitability, with a continued trend of supply share concentration [3] Group 4: Brand Strategy - The company is undergoing a significant brand center reorganization and capability upgrade, establishing a full-chain team for market insights, product definition, and end-to-end shelf placement [4] - The product strategy includes accelerating the launch of new products, with 40 new items introduced in the first half of 2025 [4] - Marketing innovations include a lightweight collaboration model with celebrities to maximize traffic while minimizing long-term binding risks [4] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company aims for brand revenue to approach manufacturing by 2028, with expectations for high growth in OBM business [5] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 110 million, 260 million, and 390 million CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36.9X, 15.5X, and 10.5X [5]