转债 | 趋势滚滚而来

Market Overview - The equity-like market experienced a volatile upward trend from January 19 to 23, with the overall market index rising by 1.81% and the convertible bond index increasing by 2.92% during this period [5] - The convertible bond market saw a significant increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 1045.15 billion to 932.94 billion [25] Convertible Bond Valuation - As of January 23, 2026, the median price of convertible bonds surpassed 140 yuan, indicating a shift in the reference significance of absolute prices [20] - The valuation of convertible bonds has shown a divergence, with debt-type bonds experiencing a slight decline in valuation while equity-type bonds continued to stretch [10][18] - The pricing anchor for convertible bonds has weakened, with a notable decrease in the proportion of low-priced convertible bonds, particularly those priced below 120 yuan [18] Sector Performance - The performance of convertible bonds varied by sector, with notable gains in upstream resources and high-end manufacturing sectors, such as textiles and apparel, which rose by 7.44%, and steel and petrochemicals, which increased by 6.67% and 6.65%, respectively [8] - Conversely, sectors like social services and media showed weaker performance, with declines of 7.53% and 1.93% [8] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions suggest that investors should focus more on equity timing indicators rather than relying solely on convertible bond metrics, as the significance of various convertible bond indicators is diminishing [20] - Despite the high valuation levels, the internal momentum for buying remains strong, and investors seeking relative returns are encouraged to continue participating in the market [20] Supply and Issuance - The total issuance of convertible bonds in 2026 reached 57.80 billion yuan, which is relatively low compared to recent years, with new issuances including Aiwei Convertible Bond at 19.01 billion yuan and Longjian Convertible Bond at 10.00 billion yuan [25]