年前需求端难有起色 预计沥青期货价格震荡运行

Group 1 - The main contract for asphalt futures closed at 3236 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 7201 contracts [1] - During the week of January 19-23, asphalt futures opened at 3149 yuan/ton, peaked at 3256 yuan/ton, and hit a low of 3125 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 3.29% [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 15800 tons month-on-month, representing a 7.3% reduction, and a year-on-year decrease of 27600 tons, or 12.1% [2] - As of January 21, the comprehensive profit for asphalt was 62 yuan/ton, down by 57.41 yuan/ton [2] - The capacity utilization rate for 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month, but an increase of 3.5% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Newhu Futures reported that a certain refinery in Shandong is repurchasing previous contracts, indicating a potential raw material shortage [3] - Jianxin Futures noted that the supply side is stable, with a planned production shift to asphalt by Shengxing Petrochemical, while Qilu Petrochemical has shifted to residual oil production [3] - The demand side is expected to be limited due to seasonal factors, with construction projects in East and Central China potentially winding down or halting due to adverse weather conditions [3]