长城基金陈子扬：“有色盛宴”并非偶然 化工行业或现拐点性机会

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy emphasizes investing in quality companies at reasonable or low prices during favorable economic cycles, aiming for superior returns [1] - The cyclical sector is entering a new phase characterized by strong demand driven by "new productive forces," long-term supply constraints, and diversified driving factors [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector was a standout performer in the A-share market in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 94.74%, nearly doubling in value [2] - Four key factors driving the non-ferrous metals market include the U.S. debt cycle, structural demand, supply chain security, and changes in the supply cycle [2] - The U.S. debt and deficit levels are rising, leading to concerns about sustainability and prompting central banks to diversify reserves, which supports precious metal prices [2] - The development of AI and accelerated global energy transition are increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The global supply chain is shifting focus from efficiency to security, increasing demand for commodities [2] - The capital expenditure for major non-ferrous metals peaked in 2011 and has since entered a prolonged contraction phase, creating a significant output gap and supporting industry prices [2] Group 3 - Investment strategies are based on the capital expenditure cycle, focusing on sectors with low ROE and average PB ratios to achieve favorable risk-reward ratios [3] - The investment framework evaluates stocks based on three dimensions: prosperity, quality, and valuation, with a higher weight given to prosperity when conflicts arise [3] - Preference is given to upstream resource products due to their more controllable costs compared to midstream cyclical products [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue its high profitability, supported by sustained demand and potential for value re-evaluation [4] - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are undervalued compared to their overseas counterparts, despite comparable growth and core competitiveness [4] - Small metals are in a strategic reserve enhancement cycle, facing supply constraints due to resource scarcity and limited new capacity [5] - The long-term investment logic for gold remains strong, supported by central bank purchases and asset allocation needs [5] - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo a value re-evaluation, with capital expenditure declining and profitability expected to recover [5] - The chemical sector's low valuation and improving profit expectations present significant investment opportunities [5]