智通财经网·2026-01-26 00:00Core Viewpoint - Investors are focusing on niche stocks in the artificial intelligence sector, with upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies serving as a critical indicator for the continuation of this strategy into 2026 [1] Group 1: Performance of Major Tech Companies - The "Tech Seven" companies, including Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have significantly influenced the stock market over the past three years, but this trend reversed by the end of 2025, leading to skepticism about the returns on their substantial investments in AI [1] - Following the peak of the Tech Seven index on October 29, 2025, five of the seven companies saw their stock prices decline, underperforming the S&P 500 index, with only Google and Amazon recording gains [1] Group 2: Shift in Investor Focus - Traders have shifted their attention to companies benefiting from substantial funding from large tech firms, with stocks like Sandisk, Micron Technology, and Western Digital seeing significant price increases of over 130%, 76%, and 67% respectively since the Tech Seven index's peak [2] - The performance of tech stocks is now expected to be driven by earnings, with major firms needing to demonstrate satisfactory results to attract capital back into the sector [2] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to release their earnings reports on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday, with Alphabet and Nvidia's reports scheduled for early February [2] - The Tech Seven group is projected to see a 20% profit growth in the fourth quarter, marking the slowest growth rate since early 2023, indicating pressure on these companies to show returns on their capital expenditures [2][4] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - Major tech companies are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with projections of around $475 billion in 2026, up from $230 billion in 2024, necessitating visible returns on these investments [4] - If these companies fail to meet growth targets, they risk substantial stock price declines, as seen with Meta Platforms, which experienced an 11% drop following its capital expenditure announcement without clear profitability guidance [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Despite the challenges, the Tech Seven stocks are not considered expensive historically, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 28, aligning with the average over the past decade [8] - The S&P 500 index's performance is heavily influenced by the Tech Seven, which accounts for over one-third of the index's weight, making it difficult for investors to completely avoid these stocks [5]