中信证券：印尼镍矿生产配额减少镍价有望持续上涨

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities reports that Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is expected to decrease significantly in 2026, which may lead to a sustained increase in nickel prices [1] Group 1: Production Quota - The Indonesian government is projected to set the annual nickel ore production quota for January 2026 at 250 million to 260 million tons, a substantial decline from the 2025 quota [1] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is expected to drop to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The anticipated reduction in nickel supply could result in a global nickel industry shortfall of 200,000 tons [1] - LME nickel prices are expected to rise to $22,000 per ton as a consequence of the supply shortage [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The regulatory environment for the mining industry in Indonesia is becoming increasingly stringent, which is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production [1] - Nickel prices are expected to gradually recover from their current low levels in the long term [1]