Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-26 00:25Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Indonesia's nickel ore production quota for 2026 is expected to be between 250-260 million tons, significantly lower than the quota for 2025, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and an increase in nickel prices [1] Group 1: Production Quota and Impact - Indonesia's government anticipates a nickel ore production quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, a substantial decrease from 2025 [1] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is projected to decline to 2.6-2.7 million tons, resulting in a global nickel supply shortfall of 200,000 tons [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price is expected to rise to $22,000 per ton due to the anticipated supply constraints [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The regulatory environment for the mining industry in Indonesia is becoming increasingly stringent, which is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production [1] - Nickel prices are expected to gradually recover from their current low levels in the long term [1]