中金：若“乱象”事态超出预期 利多避险资产、资源品 科技逢低介入

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to monitor key events related to Trump's policies, including potential tariffs and judicial rulings that could impact market stability [1][2] - The report indicates that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies has led to increased volatility in both the stock and bond markets, with a notable "triple hit" in the markets [2][4] - Trump's approach to challenging the existing international order is identified as a significant source of market volatility, with a focus on understanding the underlying intentions behind his policies [6][7] Group 2 - Trump's macro objectives are summarized as "increasing revenue," "reducing costs," and "bringing back manufacturing and capital" [7][41] - The strategy of increasing revenue through tariffs has shown significant short-term effects, with a reported 24.6% reduction in trade deficits from April to October 2025, and tariff revenues reaching $287 billion [8][10][9] - The report highlights that the actual effective tax rate from tariffs is 11.1%, which is below the theoretical rate, indicating that the impact on inflation has been manageable so far [14][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the limited effectiveness and significant backlash of Trump's cost-reduction strategies, particularly regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [32][35] - It notes that the cost of servicing U.S. debt has approached $1 trillion, which is over 3.1% of GDP, despite attempts to influence interest rates through non-market methods [35][37] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair is seen as a crucial factor in shaping market expectations and influencing cost reduction [38] Group 4 - The report indicates that manufacturing and capital are returning to the U.S. due to various incentives, including tax breaks and tariffs that compel foreign companies to invest domestically [41][42] - The share of U.S. manufacturing imports has decreased from 13.3% to 8.0%, reflecting a growing importance of domestic manufacturing [43] - Corporate investment has also increased, with fixed investment rising from 0.9% to 3.9% year-on-year, driven by equipment and intangible assets [45][47] Group 5 - The report warns of potential risks to foreign direct investment and U.S. Treasury securities due to ongoing challenges to the international order, which could lead to a "de-dollarization" trend [49][50] - Despite concerns, the narrative of de-dollarization has not yet materialized into significant actions, as foreign holdings of U.S. debt reached a new high of nearly $9.4 trillion [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends closely, as instability in the Treasury market could have severe implications for the U.S. financial system [50]