光大期货：1月26日黑色系日报

Economic Overview - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][15]. - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][15]. Steel Production and Demand - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][15]. - The total steel inventory reached 12.5708 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 100,700 tons, indicating a mixed supply structure with an increase in construction materials and a decrease in sheet materials [5][16]. Market Performance - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.51%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week, with a profitability rate of 40.69%, up by 0.86 percentage points [5][16]. - The production of rebar increased by 92,500 tons to 1.9955 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons, down by 25,500 tons week-on-week [6][18]. Price Trends - The current market for rebar is characterized by rising supply but weak demand, leading to a continuation of seasonal weakness in prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in steel prices [6][17]. - The trading strategy for rebar is set within a short-term range of 3,100 to 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is expected to range between 3,250 and 3,350 yuan per ton [8][19]. Alloy Market Insights - The alloy supply remains low with minimal changes in production, and the demand from steel mills is stable, leading to expectations of a continued oscillation in prices [9][20].