光大期货：1月26日有色金属日报

Macro - The US Q3 real GDP was slightly revised up to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years, with core PCE inflation stable at 2.9% [3] - The November PCE price index in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation and robust consumer spending [3] - The resilience of the US economy and stable job market have led to significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with low probability for a cut in January [3] - Tensions in Greenland have exacerbated rifts between the US and Europe, leading some European sovereign funds to sell US debt, raising concerns about "dollar credit" [3] Copper Market - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tightness in the copper concentrate market, which is a strong support factor [4] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for January is 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [4] - In December, net imports of refined copper in China fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4] - As of January 23, global visible copper inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 1.091 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4] - Despite high copper prices leading to weaker consumption, the market sentiment remains bullish, suggesting a volatile upward trend in copper prices [5][20] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums are at $8.0 per wet ton [6] - January refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is expected to decrease by 1% [6] - The demand for new energy materials has increased, with weekly ternary material production rising to 18,256 tons [7] - The Indonesian government has indicated a potential 10-15% decrease in nickel ore production compared to last year, which may impact market dynamics [8] Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract settling at 2,724 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1% [9] - The average operating rate of processing enterprises has increased by 0.7% to 60.9% as downstream sectors prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [10] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum ingots have shown mixed trends, with alumina inventories decreasing while aluminum ingot inventories are increasing [10][11] - The market sentiment is supported by pre-holiday stocking, but the sustainability of price rebounds remains uncertain due to ongoing production cuts [11][26] Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures are showing strong fluctuations, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [27] - The production of polysilicon has decreased, with P-type prices down to 48,000 yuan/ton and N-type down to 55,000 yuan/ton [28] - Supply disruptions in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan are raising concerns about future production levels [29] - The market is expected to face pressure from high inventory levels and potential demand saturation, despite short-term support for polysilicon prices [29] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production has decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons, with various sources of lithium showing declines [30] - Demand for ternary materials has increased, with production rising to 18,256 tons, while inventory levels have also increased [30] - Concerns over supply disruptions in Jiangxi and rising costs due to overseas tax policies are influencing market dynamics [31] - The market is expected to experience strong price fluctuations in the short term, with a focus on downstream performance and inventory movements [31]