光大期货：1月26日能源化工日报

Group 1 - Oil prices increased weekly, with WTI closing at $61.07 per barrel, a weekly gain of 3.48%, and Brent at $65.88 per barrel, a gain of 1.93% [2][33] - Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil price fluctuations, with the U.S. Treasury announcing sanctions on nine vessels and eight companies involved in transporting Iranian oil [2][33] - The EIA predicts a global oil production of 107.65 million barrels per day by 2026, an increase of 1.39 million barrels per day from 2025, while also forecasting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day [3][34] Group 2 - China's crude oil processing increased, with December processing volume at 62.46 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4][35] - In December, China's crude oil imports were approximately 55.97 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.0% and a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [4][35] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4.408 million barrels to 840.533 million barrels, with commercial crude oil inventories increasing by 3.602 million barrels to 426.049 million barrels [5][36] Group 3 - Chevron reported that oil production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz field has not yet recovered due to a fire, exacerbating issues in the region [6][37] - The EIA expects non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries to play a key role in balancing the global market, with South America projected to contribute significantly to new conventional oil capacity [6][37] - The geopolitical situation, particularly regarding Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, remains a critical factor influencing oil supply and pricing dynamics [7][37]