华泰期货：焦煤焦炭基本面无明显矛盾，节前市场或延续震荡

Group 1: Market Analysis - As of last Friday's close, the coking coal contract 2605 decreased to 1717 CNY/ton, while the coking coal contract 2605 fell to 1157 CNY/ton [2][8] - Daily coking coal production is 633,000 tons, down by 1,000 tons; daily coking coal output from 247 steel mills is 469,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 89.3%, up by 0.9% [2][8] - Daily raw coal production is 1,994,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons [2][8] Group 2: Demand and Supply - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 78.68%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, but up by 0.70% year-on-year; the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 85.51%, up by 0.03% week-on-week and 0.87% year-on-year [2][8] - The profit margin for steel mills is 40.69%, an increase of 0.86% week-on-week, but a decrease of 8.23% year-on-year; daily molten iron output is 2,281,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week and 26,500 tons year-on-year [2][8] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Coking coal inventory at 247 steel mills is 6,616,000 tons, an increase of 113,000 tons, with a usable days supply of 12.4 days, up by 0.4 days [3][9] - Coking coal inventory at 247 steel mills is 8,032,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; total coking coal inventory for independent coking enterprises is 11,777,000 tons, up by 449,000 tons, with a usable days supply of 12.9 days, unchanged from last week [3][9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply-demand contradiction for coking coal is limited, with major coking enterprises initiating price increases, but downstream steel mills are resistant due to thin profits and lack of significant increases in molten iron output [3][9] - Pre-Spring Festival inventory replenishment by steel mills is expected to further stimulate demand, with coking coal likely to continue fluctuating in the short term [3][9] - Domestic coal production remains stable, with high operating rates in major production areas and high imports of Mongolian coal; coking coal inventory continues to accumulate but remains at a relatively low level [3][9]