新股前瞻｜当乳业巨头失速，君乐宝如何靠“鲜”战略冲击港股

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the significant transformation of the Chinese dairy industry post the 2008 melamine scandal, focusing on Junlebao's strategic shift and its upcoming IPO as a response to market dynamics and internal adjustments [1]. Company Overview - Junlebao Dairy Group is positioned as the third-largest player in China's comprehensive dairy market, holding a market share of 4.3% [2]. - The company's growth is primarily driven by its leading position in the rapidly growing low-temperature liquid milk segment, which is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% over the next few years [2]. - Junlebao's premium fresh milk brand "Yuexianhuo" has captured a 24.0% share in the high-end fresh milk market, priced above 20 RMB per liter, marking a significant milestone in the company's brand upgrade [2]. Financial Performance - Junlebao's revenue structure shows a clear trend, with low-temperature liquid milk products expected to increase their revenue share from 35.9% in 2023 to 42.5% by the first nine months of 2025 [3]. - The company reported revenues of 17.546 billion RMB in 2023 and 19.833 billion RMB in 2024, indicating stable growth [4]. - Net profit surged from 5.58 million RMB in 2023 to 1.115 billion RMB in 2024, with the first nine months of 2025 showing a net profit of 900.2 million RMB, surpassing 80% of the total profit for 2024 [5]. Industry Dynamics - The Chinese dairy industry is experiencing structural growth, with the low-temperature liquid dairy segment projected to grow from 77.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 89.7 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3.0% [6]. - Despite stable demand growth, the industry is shifting from a focus on volume to a more diversified and refined demand approach, indicating a new phase of "quality elevation" [6]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with pressures from rising costs and aggressive competition across all price segments, necessitating a focus on brand loyalty and supply chain efficiency [7]. Strategic Outlook - Junlebao's IPO is seen as a strategic move to solidify its market position and adapt to the new industry norms, showcasing its growth potential in niche markets and integrated supply chains [8]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining profitability amid high costs and competition, emphasizing the need for sustainable brand value and consumer loyalty beyond short-term marketing efforts [8].