基础油：市场承压，行情难超上年

Group 1: Global Market Overview - In 2026, the global base oil market will enter a complex phase characterized by demand shifts, regulatory changes, and supply chain adjustments, with a notable divergence between capacity expansions in Asia and Europe and a cautious stance in the U.S. [1] - The market is expected to face both opportunities and challenges in 2026, with the outlook for base oil prices unlikely to exceed those of 2025, indicating continued pressure on the industry in the coming years [1][2] Group 2: Asia-Pacific and Middle East Market Dynamics - In 2025, the Asia-Pacific and Middle East base oil markets will be influenced by geopolitical factors and tariffs, but the fundamentals will primarily drive market trends [1] - ExxonMobil's expansion project in Singapore is a focal point, with new capacity for 2026 already secured through long-term contracts, limiting available spot market supplies [1] - Demand in Asia is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a focus on categories II and III base oils, while category I base oils will see stable supply without major maintenance plans [1] Group 3: European Market Conditions - In Q4 2025, the European base oil market will continue to face pressure from oversupply and high profitability in distillate oils, prompting producers to adjust their strategies [2] - All categories of base oils are experiencing oversupply, leading refineries to reduce base oil production in favor of increasing diesel output [2] - The expansion plan of Poland's national oil company, with a new 400,000 tons/year category II base oil facility set to start in Q1 2026, will be a key variable for the European market [2] Group 4: U.S. Market Sentiment - U.S. market participants are adopting a cautious outlook, with base oil production in 2025 providing strong support for global category II base oil supply, a trend expected to continue into 2026 [2] - The release of new capacities in Poland and Singapore will intensify competition in traditional U.S. export markets, leading to a cautious stance among U.S. blenders regarding the 2026 base oil market [2] - The base oil market is anticipated to experience a lull in trading in January, with demand expected to recover only by March [2]