长安期货侯荃宇：基本面驱动不足 聚乙烯反弹高度受限

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in polyethylene prices is limited due to insufficient fundamental support, primarily driven by capital market dynamics and geopolitical tensions [5][18]. Supply Side - Domestic polyethylene supply showed a slight increase in operating rates and production, with an operating rate of 84.67%, up 3.08% week-on-week, and a weekly production of 69.89 million tons, an increase of 2.91 million tons [8][27]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual release of capacity as major facilities restart operations, which may continue to exert pressure on prices [8][27]. - The import and export windows for polyethylene remain closed, with domestic imports expected to decline further [10][29]. Demand Side - The demand side is characterized by a traditional consumption off-season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors [11][30]. - The overall operating rate in downstream industries is 39.53%, down 1.4% week-on-week, primarily due to the upcoming Spring Festival [11][30]. - Specific sectors like agricultural films are experiencing reduced operating rates, with the agricultural film sector at 36.32%, down 0.61% [13][32]. Inventory - Domestic polyethylene inventory continues to decrease, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [14][33]. - As of January 13, production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, down 1.53 million tons week-on-week, while trader inventory was 26,600 tons, down 0.26 million tons [14][33]. Cost Side - Rising raw material prices, influenced by geopolitical factors, are providing some support to the market, although the overall oil market remains weak [16][35]. - The recent increase in propylene and methanol futures prices has not significantly improved the spot market transaction atmosphere [16][35]. Summary - Short-term polyethylene prices are expected to maintain a "cost support + capital-driven" oscillating strong trend, but the upside is constrained by fundamental factors [18][37]. - With strong cost support and positive capital market sentiment, polyethylene prices may continue to rise slightly, but the overall volatility is likely to be limited due to high price levels and low acceptance from downstream buyers [18][37].