不要低估这轮大宗商品的牛市

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by technology stocks, particularly in AI, while the commodity market also presents significant investment opportunities due to its performance since last year [1][24]. Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - Since 2025, the commodity market has exhibited a clear differentiation, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching historical highs, while steel and chemicals are in a recovery phase, and oil and coal remain at low levels [5][26]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown remarkable performance, driven by factors such as the global "de-dollarization" narrative, renewed focus on gold's monetary attributes, and external factors like interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [6][7][26]. - Industrial metals are experiencing increased demand due to AI, with copper demand rising from AI data center construction, while silver has also seen significant price increases due to its dual role as a precious and industrial metal [27][28]. Group 2: Economic Cycle and Commodity Trends - The price trends of commodities are influenced by macroeconomic cycles and inventory cycles, typically following a pattern of precious metals leading, followed by industrial metals, energy, and finally agricultural products [28][29]. - In the transition from recession to recovery, precious metals like gold and silver lead the price increases, while industrial metals rebound during the recovery to overheating phase, and energy prices strengthen during the overheating phase [29][30]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - Opportunities in 2026 can be identified along three main lines: 1. AI-driven demand expansion, with significant growth in materials like lithium carbonate and copper, as evidenced by recent price increases [34][36]. 2. Supply contraction due to "anti-involution" policies, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, chemicals, and steel, which are expected to improve profitability and price stability [36][38]. 3. Monitoring CPI trends to identify potential agricultural investments, as the domestic CPI has shown signs of gradual recovery [45][46]. Group 4: Conclusion - The domestic economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, leading to a cycle of increased demand, inventory accumulation, and rising prices for various commodities, with global supply constraints becoming more pronounced [47].