长江有色：MLF 宽松加持及节前备货刚需释放 26日铅价或小涨

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a strong rebound driven by macroeconomic policies, monetary environment, and industrial logic, with significant support from supply constraints and demand resilience ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a "loose East and weak West" pattern, with the People's Bank of China signaling clear easing through MLF excess renewals, and domestic manufacturing PMI data showing signs of demand resilience [1]. - The weakening US dollar index has reached a new low, enhancing the global purchasing power and financial attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is constrained by environmental regulations, maintenance, and raw material shortages, providing rigid support for prices [2]. - Demand is bolstered by policies such as the extension of the vehicle purchase tax and trade-in incentives, along with pre-holiday stocking needs, demonstrating core resilience [2]. Group 3: Market Predictions - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation within the range of 17,000 to 17,500 yuan per ton, supported by macroeconomic easing signals, rigid supply constraints, and pre-holiday demand [3]. - The current trading behavior is primarily driven by downstream purchasing needs, while the acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises may limit upward price movement [3].